What will devolution mean for Gloucestershire?
Gloucestershire is about to face the biggest change to how it is governed in a lifetime and is racing to understand what the Devolution Bill means for the county.
Dear readers,
Today’s edition came super late in the day on Monday, mostly due to the late publication of the Government’s White Paper on devolution (yes, I’m blaming the Government - although Christmas also played its part!).
The Labour Government believes firmly that down this route - giving more power to the regions - lies cost savings, investment potential, job creation and a return of local decision making.
Raikes was lucky enough to sit down with the leader of Gloucestershire County Council today to chat about the many challenges in his in-tray - and not least about devolution and what it means for the county.
Is it looking at a mayoral system, will we see the end of the six district councils, will we see a unitary authority, will the county be forced to merge with an area outside its current boundary in order to achieve its favoured route?
It’s an interesting time for the council and the county.
Davies steps in after a 10-year reign by fellow Conservative Mark Hawthorne (MBE), the council is no longer awash with Conservative blue, its chief executive officer, Pete Bungard, is due to retire in May 2025, GFirst LEP - a strong and independent voice of business both here in in Downing Street was swallowed up by the county council earlier this year and the Western Gateway Partnership - the other independent voice shouting for Gloucestershire, is under review.
That’s why we’ve spent some time on the story. The way forward is not conclusive yet, but the new leader seems determined to lead an open, business friendly authority.
You can read what county council leader, Cllr Stephen Davies, thinks below.
(For those waiting for the write-up on QuoLux’s masterclass event last week - it’s coming! On Wednesday we hope.)
Andrew Merrell (editor).
NB: Raikes publishes probably the best-read business-related email ‘newsletter’, pound for pound, in Gloucestershire.
If you have a story, an issue, a news item, a charity or an interview you want us to write about or investigate, challenge the powers that be on, then please email me: andrew.merrell@raikesjournal.co.uk.
Gloucester is overrun by Santa Claus lookalikes!
Matt Cass, the organiser of the Rotary Club of Gloucester’s city centre fun run at the weekend, had said he wanted to ‘fill King’s Square with Santa Clause impersonators - and he almost got his wish. The annual Santa fun run in aid of Gloucester charity’s invites all-comers to dress up as Father Christmas (or an elf or similar) and take on the 1km or 5km challenge around the city’s streets. This year there was a record turnout raising more than £5,000 - the largest amount since the Rotary club first staged the run in 2017. Runners started in King’s Square in the city centre, went up and down its gate streets and past the Cathedral to finish back in the square. Cass, also a director of Barnwood-based Cass Stephens Insurance, said the event raised funds for the club’s Gloucester Community Awards, which give money to local groups, projects and charities.
*If you know a charity that needs more publicity or would like to be featured on an edition of Raikes, please email andrew.merrell@raikesjournal.co.uk.
Your briefing notes…
🛍️ Need to create some time to finish that Christmas shopping still and need a flying visit into town? There is free parking in Gloucester after 3pm on Wednesday 18 to Friday 20 December at Eastgate and King’s Walk shopping centre car parks. You can thank Gloucester City Council for the decision to lift the charges across those days and Gloucester BID for letting us know to spread the word.
📽️ Next year is the 40th anniversary of The Nelson Trust which works to support people recovering from addiction and much more.
It kicks off a year of fundraising events with a screening of Season Two of SAS Rogue Heroes, the hit BBC series from director and writer Steven Knight. Knight, who famously wrote TV hit Peaky Blinders and is now working on the next Star Wars film, will speak before the screening, which tells the story of the creation of the world’s first Special Forces unit during World War II. Due to show on January 5 from 6pm to 9pm at The Parkinson Lecture Theatre at the Royal Agricultural University, Cirencester. Find out more here.
🏘️ Looking into 2025 – Willans LLP, the Cheltenham-headquartered law firm, is due to stage a special property seminar in January. If you’re a buy-to-let property owner or considering entering the market it could be of interest to you. The firm’s experienced property lawyers Suzanne O’Riordan and James Melvin-Bath, as well as guest speakers Vanessa Clark of Azets and Paul Davis of Ludice Wealth Management Ltd, will tackle topics including practical tips on how to boost and protect your investment property portfolio. A guide to managing your investment property in 2025 is due to take place on Tuesday 14 January from 5.30 to 7pm at Gloucester Guildhall. Find out more here.
🏆 The Royal Agricultural University (RAU) has revealed the winners of its inaugural Farm491 Challenge Prize. The competition, supported by the Esmée Fairbairn Foundation, whittled down a shortlist of 15 firms to one winner. RegenFarmCo received the top prize of £50,000. Runner-up, Agile Property and Homes, secured £25,000. RegenFarmCo supports design projects that apply regenerative food production methods to enable novel supply chain opportunities through unique partnerships with farmers, foresters, and landowners. Agile Property and Homes designs and delivers affordable, safe, and low-carbon homes using biobased materials and modern construction methods.
💐🌵🐠 Dobbies garden centre off junction nine of the M5 at Gloucester has shut for good. The firm said the store was closing as part of its restructuring plans which have also seen a number of other Dobbies close in recent weeks. In a message to customers on its website the store, off Bath Road, Haresfield, near Stonehouse, thanks customers and reminded them their nearest Dobbies was now in Tewkesbury.
Gloucester Rugby’s latest signing revealed
We couldn’t resist this one, even though the news is out there already - not least because it features one of Raikes’ Founding Partners, the firms that have made this digital magazine possible. Willans LLP has announced a three-year partnership as the official partner and legal services provider to Gloucester Rugby. The Cheltenham-based firm is also sponsoring the Gloucester Rugby Business Club. Alex Brown, CEO of the Kingsholm club, said: “Willans LLP solicitors has a huge presence in the Gloucestershire community, and in the sporting circle, so we’re delighted to partner with them.” Willans’ senior partner in litigation and dispute resolution, and a life-long Gloucester Rugby fan, Paul Gordon, said: “We’re thrilled to partner with Gloucester Rugby and to offer our support and services to its fans, players and wider club members. We look forward to cheering on the team over the next few seasons.”
* Everything you read on The Raikes Journal is made possible by our incredible Founding Partners: QuoLux, Willans LLP, Gloucestershire College, Merrell People and Randall & Payne, our sponsors Hartpury University and Hartpury College, our Founding Members and wonderful paying subscribers.
If you upgrade to paid you’ll be part of this community interest company too. We are dedicated to delivering quality journalism for Gloucestershire, to championing the county, in particular its businesses, charities, education and training providers, and to helping create an even stronger community. If you upgrade to paid you will be able to see past the paywalls often put on our second and third email editions of the week, that lock all our archive after two weeks and lock our rolling Top 100 Businesses in Gloucestershire series. You will be able to comment on our stories too. You’ll be helping make this CIC sustainable.
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Contract wins drive 84 per cent growth at teach firm
In August this firm was annoucing it had increased turnover in the previous 12 months by £2.2 million, taking the total to £3 million. And now Cheltenham-headquartered IT support services business Emerge Digital has revealed that growth continues apace. According to the latest statement from the Eagle Tower-based business new contracts in 2024 have amounted to £500,000 in total - many with new customers. Those customers include Everhot, The HR Dept, Green Gourmet, Bannister Transport, 4R Group, Blueprint Project Solutions, and Deya Brewing Company, which have all agreed to undergo what Emerge is calling “digital transformation projects”. Companies include BWS Group, Lakes Showering Spaces, Frog Environmental, H&H Distribution and Constructing Excellence South West, have agreed ongoing IT support contracts. Work includes implentation of AI adoption and app development to CRM updates and IT support. Emege said in its last 12 months it had increased customer base by 26 per cent contributing to 84 per cent growth for the innovation arm of its business. Staff numbers currently stand at 21.
What will devolution mean for Gloucestershire?
Gloucestershire is about to face the biggest change to how it is governed in a lifetime and is racing to understand what the Devolution Bill means for the county.
By Andrew Merrell.
Billed as the “biggest transfer of power out of Westminster this century”, the Devolution Bill published today (Monday December 12) sets out how the Government plans to ‘put the destiny of England’s regions in their own hands’.
But where does the 118-page document leave Gloucestershire?
That is as yet unclear.
The county’s total population makes it too small to opt for a mayoral system, and according to county council leader Stephen Davies joining forces with another local authority is also not a first-choice solution. But he’s not ruling it out.
“The Government wants an area of a million-plus people to be able to go down that (mayoral) route and we are short of that by some way,” said Cllr Davies, who replaced long-standing county council leader Mark Hawthorne in the summer.
He met with The Raikes Journal earlier today and explained his thinking.
“It is difficult for Gloucestershire. We don’t have a natural fit (in terms of another local authority area to join forces with),” said Cllr Davies.
“We can’t go west because we go into Wales, it would make sense to go east, except Oxford is already tied up in efforts to become a combined authority.
“Going south makes sense, but it is difficult at the moment. And it is also difficult because there will be elections in May, and we can’t do anything until after those elections.
“We can’t really make any big decisions without putting it to a vote either.
“There is some sense of reasoning why southwards fits, a lot of our economic drivers for us are Bristol-facing, but I think there is obviously some risk too that our voice would be cancelled out somewhat.
“The other way is to look North to Hereford and Worcestershire. It would fit, but it is a non-urban authority which would be able to command less money. So why do it?.”
There is the option of uniting all six of Gloucestershire’s local authorities under the county council as a new super authority.
“I don’t think it would result in mass job losses if we went down that route. We might see some senior management go, however.
“Other savings might come in terms of buildings.
“What with remote working having become the norm we currently have too much space and we have been working on how to make that work better for us already.”
According to the CNN (County Council’s Network), devolving public spending to county areas could generate up to £36 billion in public sector savings over a five-year period and one billion new jobs in the next decade, generate £26 billion extra for the national economy and deliver £11.7 billion in savings per year over a five-year period.
While the broader efficiencies certainly look atrtactive, what would that mean for planning and local development and the voices of the county’s distinctly different districts?
A unitary planning authority, for example, could be a workable option – but Davies has reservations about councillors from existing districts making decisions on areas they are both unfamiliar with and less invested in. But there are easy checks and balances to remove that sticking point.
Our conversation takes a brief detour into a discussion about the Government’s current plans to strong-arm councils into building 1.5 million new homes, reforming planning and building on what it calls ‘Grey Belt’ land.
“I think on this they are missing some fundamental areas. First, there are one million homes in Britain with planning to build already. There is just no fixed incentive for developers to go ahead and build them.
“If you go down to Harwicke and they are building, you know the economy is going well. If they are not, then you know the economy is not going so well.”
There was one factor, he said, which would ultimately prove significantly influential in his own decision-making on the future structure of the county resulting from the new White Paper.
“It depends how prescriptive the Government is about it, but if there is a way Gloucestershire can get more money I will look at that.
“I will not be the Gloucestershire authority leader who puts his hands up to go unitary unless there is a very good reason.
“My perspective is simple, it is brings money into Gloucestershire we need to find a way to do that. But we will not go to unitary unless we have to do so.”
What is the aim of the biggest shake-up to local Government in a lifetime?
Jim McMahon OBE MP and Minister of State for Local Government and English Devolution, said: “We are determined to change our economy, with a decade of national renewal to deliver growth that can be felt in the pockets of working people – where pride is renewed and security at home, in local communities and at work is secured."
“This White Paper sets the direction of travel. It will provide places with the tools they need to deliver the Government’s ambitious Plan for Change, empowering them to tackle the crisis we inherited with poor outcomes for local public services, with significant parts of our economy being under-powered and opportunity denied for working people to get on in life.”
According to the Government its Industrial Strategy Green Paper sets out that the UK has often ranked in the bottom 10 per cent of OECD countries for investment.
“This is mainly driven by low levels of private sector investment, though public sector investment has tended to be relatively low as well.
“UK total public investment, at three per cent GDP, was 26th out of 38 OECD countries, against an OECD average of 3.6 per cent GDP in 2022
“Low UK total public investment is driven by our low level of local government investment.
“Although UK central Government investment matches the OECD average, at 2.2 per cent GDP, UK local government investment, at 0.8 per cent GDP against an OECD average of 1.4 per cent, ranks 30th out of 38 OECD countries - the lowest in the G7.
“If our subnational investment matched the OECD average rate, we would invest an extra £19 billion per year – a further 0.6 per cent of GDP. This would put the UK in the top 50 per cent of OECD countries for total public investment.”
Step back for a moment and there are other concerns afoot too.
For a decade plus Gloucestershire had a voice in Government through its business group, the local enterprise partnership, GFirst LEP, but that was folded into the county council at the start of 2024 and its effectiveness - as what is currently called the Economic Growth Board - is yet to become apparent.
“I think what made the LEP powerful before was its connection to small and medium-sized businesses and I have encouraged David Owen to keep that alive,” said Davies, referring to the former chief executive officer of GFirst LEP, now the council’s director of economy and environment.
“I think that connection is crucial and what helped make it so dynamic. In fact, we may rebrand it to help distance it from the council.”
Davies hopes to give the team as much autonomy as possible - with the county taking an overview and intervening as little as possible.
The Economic Growth Board’s next meeting is in the New Year.
Moving into the vacuum left by the former GFirst LEP in the meantime has been the Western Gateway Partnership, a potentially much mightier Anglo-Welsh economic voice incorporating Gloucestershire too.
Its aim, to create a regional voice powerful and loud enough to win its fair share or more of funding for the region and to be heard alongside the Northern Powerhouse.
That very institution, which only recently published a strategy document that stated the Western Gateway area had a combined economic output valued at £129 billion - making it one of the most important areas in the UK, is now in jeopardy too with the Government consulting on its future.
Davies thinks it might survive the axe, but nothing is certain at this stage.
“The Western Gateway is different from similar organisations in the focus of the Government currently.
“It connects us to Wales. If I want to have conversations with anyone in Newport or Cardiff, it would be through the Western Gateway,” he said.
If it was lost too it would leave Gloucestershire without an independent voice around the top table of Government and as new mayors emerge to push their agendas what would that mean for the county?
On the plus side, Gloucestershire is in good shape financially compared to many, said Davies.
He was cabinet member for children’s safeguarding in 2021, which coincided with the county shedding its inadequate rating for its Children’s Services in April 2022, something it had fought to lose following an Ofsted inspection in 2017.
“That was mostly due to the hard work of my predecessors. If and when, as we hope, at our next Ofsted we are declared good, which we hope to be, then I might put my hand up a little as contributing to that achievement,” he said.
“Importantly, we are now also on budget, For a while, no matter how much we put into children’s services we overspent. That is not the case now.
“It is one of the few parts of the local authority that the more you get right, the less you spend. If we get it right, there is less intervention and that means less cost,” he said.
And speaking of money, we chat about the axe hanging over Gloucestershire and other county councils with regard to substantial special education needs deficits.
Raikes had read that 26 of the 38 county and rural unitary authorities could be at risk of issuing a Section 114 notice before 2027, including 18 authorities who could be insolvent ‘overnight’ in March 2026.
While this sounded serious, Davies acknowledged, it was not the crisis it appeared to be and was expected to never reach that point because of numerous changes to how this area was being approached nationally and how the Government viewed the money.
Which led to the good news of the interview, that while the county may be somewhat in limbo regarding its future local Government structure, was not in as weak position financially where it could be forced to make a decision it did not want to take – yet.
“Gloucestershire is solvent. That is in no small part due to the hard work of my predecessor and its staff. No all authorities can say that. Certainly compared to some local authorities we are in a very good place.”
What this space then.